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SGreg
Joined: 30 Jun 2010
Posts: 1112
Location: High Peak
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 Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:09 pm Post subject: |
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Yep, China will continue to develop, my point wasn't the US military was invincible, its just its still streets ahead. It dosent have advanced ballistic ship missiles as frankly no one, apart from the US has ships to warrent them.
And as for tracking ships yep that's great until the systems orchestrating that are jammed...just if the economist has thought of the risk of chinas anti ship missiles...the usa's multi multi billion dollar industry might have too ...?
The problem with your 43% probability is ...apart from the fact you have surly plucked it from your hole... it probably includes cold war, which is most likely atm. And as such all this talk is all a bit moot.
Real global war involves nukes, and no one has the stomach for that. Mainly as there are no winners.
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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| SGreg wrote: |
Real global war involves nukes, and no one has the stomach for that. . |
Both the far right and the far left probably do because their ideologies lean that way....had either side have them in the early/mid 20C then they certainly would have been used...
What we do know however is that the far right is now identifiable, small, and containable and thus is currently a limited risk. Whenever someone says something that is far right we can point and laugh and ostracise them from the group.
The far left however has mass support (much i would guess unknowingly or without really understanding the history of the ideology) and do not know what constitutes inappropriate behaviour. Much of the rhetoric appears to have welcome outcomes - which, any half decent observer of history will understand as being incompatible with reality.
Currently, the left is talking up the threat of the right to give itself greater credence and to justify its (ironic) use of the methods it claims the right is currently using.
The long term problem is threefold; the systems we currently have that underpins society from which the majority currently benefit* are disposed with at our peril and yet, that is the current objective of the left**;
the very people who currently make most of western society function who have no get out clause (for want of a better option, shall we call them the working/lower middle classes) are rapidly being disenfranchised from the society they underpin;
and, more worryingly, political affiliations are strongly connected to personality traits and, whilst the left tend to be more open and agreeable, the right tend to be both more conscientious and organised.
The left are currently talking up trouble with a non existent right, however, before they bring the house down (which is their objective**) the right will probably re emerge to protect the status quo (reinforcing the fears of the left).
Thus, the next wars are likely to be civil wars. The moral of the story is to challenge this current left rhetoric (predominantly US/Canadian led but the UK is fast on their heels) and not talk up the nonsense that is currently in the popular news and goes unchallenged.
(*what we currently don't know is what is the minimum level of poverty necessary currently to allow the current western society structure to continue and how to deal with closing the final gaps)
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:21 pm Post subject: |
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Sgreg
Indeed. I am just an armchair philosopher.
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SGreg
Joined: 30 Jun 2010
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Location: High Peak
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:14 pm Post subject: |
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Interesting ejc but the far left, the real far left that is, did have nukes and was at de facto war for decades and didnt have the stomach to use them.
And we still dont really know if the ultimate far right really would have ...sure if they had got them first, even the moderate middle was willing to use them in that scenario , but in a mutually assured destruction scenario ? Hitler in his later years surely would have after all thats pretty much what he wanted for Germany in the end but we dont know the party would have really accepted it.
It really does take a really special kind of nutter to wipe out life on earth so they can rule over the wasteland...even stalin passed on that one
As such i do agree the most likely scenario for the next few decades is civil unrest and proxy wars. Total war is just so unthinkable in the nuclear age.
But wasn't this thread about climate Armageddon...Interesting I think no one has the stomach to snuff life out at the push of a button but Trump seems fine to do it to make a few bucks ...
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:15 pm Post subject: |
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| SGreg wrote: | Interesting ejc but the far left, the real far left that is, did have nukes and was at de facto war for decades and didnt have the stomach to use them.
And we still dont really know if the ultimate far right really would have ...sure if they had got them first, even the moderate middle was willing to use them in that scenario , but in a mutually assured destruction scenario ? Hitler in his later years surely would have after all thats pretty much what he wanted for Germany in the end but we dont know the party would have really accepted it.
It really does take a really special kind of nutter to wipe out life on earth so they can rule over the wasteland...even stalin passed on that one
As such i do agree the most likely scenario for the next few decades is civil unrest and proxy wars. Total war is just so unthinkable in the nuclear age.
But wasn't this thread about climate Armageddon...Interesting I think no one has the stomach to snuff life out at the push of a button but Trump seems fine to do it to make a few bucks ... |
The far left got them too late for effective use...they were always playing catch up and Stalin was thankfully out of the way quite soon after...
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 7:44 am Post subject: |
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| SGreg wrote: | Total war is just so unthinkable in the nuclear age.
... |
And theirin lies the danger.
Remember also that America has pushed that button twice before. It’s not without prescident.
Now should global war happen I don’t think that nukes are the worry, it’s biological and chemical weapons that worry me. Especially with the advances in crisper cas 9 etc, in the wrong hands...
And let’s face it with the Salisbury poisonings etc, it is a sobering thought as to how easy it could be. I am currently reading “The KGBs Poison Factory” by Volodarsky. A tough and worrying read.
And look at Syria et all.
Because global war is so unthinkable, is why I agree with Angela Merkel, that we could be about to repeat the mistakes that led to WW1. In some ways we already are as I noted above.
But nukes, no they don’t worry me. To be flippant, if all those retired US American Nuke base commanders et all are being truthful, those pesky aliens will beam their white light into them, and go fiddling with the controls, rendering them ineffective, or us too scared to use them.  (for those who don’t know there is plenty of such testimony out there from sergeants up to base commanders. I am still trying to work out possible propaganda reasons why they might come out with that).
43% probability of global war within the next decade. Our world is stumbling towards it. Sadly.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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Gus
Joined: 07 Sep 2007
Posts: 2569
Location: Freezing my nads off in Aberdoom
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:50 am Post subject: |
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| SGreg wrote: | | Real global war involves nukes, and no one has the stomach for that. Mainly as there are no winners. |
I beg to differ.
Islam sees martyrdom as being a 'winner'.
Hence the global drive to avoid Islamic nations getting the technology. Pakistan has it but there are enough moderates to keep them under check (so far). Do you think ISIS, for example, if ever given the technology, would hold back?
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:49 am Post subject: |
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| SloggingScotsman wrote: | | SGreg wrote: | Total war is just so unthinkable in the nuclear age.
... |
And theirin lies the danger.
Remember also that America has pushed that button twice before. It’s not without prescident.
Now should global war happen I don’t think that nukes are the worry, it’s biological and chemical weapons that worry me. Especially with the advances in crisper cas 9 etc, in the wrong hands...
And let’s face it with the Salisbury poisonings etc, it is a sobering thought as to how easy it could be. I am currently reading “The KGBs Poison Factory” by Volodarsky. A tough and worrying read.
And look at Syria et all.
Because global war is so unthinkable, is why I agree with Angela Merkel, that we could be about to repeat the mistakes that led to WW1. In some ways we already are as I noted above.
But nukes, no they don’t worry me. To be flippant, if all those retired US American Nuke base commanders et all are being truthful, those pesky aliens will beam their white light into them, and go fiddling with the controls, rendering them ineffective, or us too scared to use them. (for those who don’t know there is plenty of such testimony out there from sergeants up to base commanders. I am still trying to work out possible propaganda reasons why they might come out with that).
43% probability of global war within the next decade. Our world is stumbling towards it. Sadly. |
Salisbury highlights just how difficult the use of chem weapons is, hence why they are used so rarely...
The world is marching towards conflict, certainly, fuelled by those who haven’t the sense to stop and think...
At least one of those sergeants is listed in the encyclopaedia of American loons...
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:51 am Post subject: |
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| Gus wrote: | | SGreg wrote: | | Real global war involves nukes, and no one has the stomach for that. Mainly as there are no winners. |
I beg to differ.
Islam sees martyrdom as being a 'winner'.
Hence the global drive to avoid Islamic nations getting the technology. Pakistan has it but there are enough moderates to keep them under check (so far). Do you think ISIS, for example, if ever given the technology, would hold back? |
Probably not...thus it would be quite useful if everyone got rid of their military nukes and then anyone creating them would violate a UN sanction and go to jail for life....
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:07 am Post subject: |
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| explorerJC wrote: | | SloggingScotsman wrote: | | SGreg wrote: | Total war is just so unthinkable in the nuclear age.
... |
And theirin lies the danger.
Remember also that America has pushed that button twice before. It’s not without prescident.
Now should global war happen I don’t think that nukes are the worry, it’s biological and chemical weapons that worry me. Especially with the advances in crisper cas 9 etc, in the wrong hands...
And let’s face it with the Salisbury poisonings etc, it is a sobering thought as to how easy it could be. I am currently reading “The KGBs Poison Factory” by Volodarsky. A tough and worrying read.
And look at Syria et all.
Because global war is so unthinkable, is why I agree with Angela Merkel, that we could be about to repeat the mistakes that led to WW1. In some ways we already are as I noted above.
But nukes, no they don’t worry me. To be flippant, if all those retired US American Nuke base commanders et all are being truthful, those pesky aliens will beam their white light into them, and go fiddling with the controls, rendering them ineffective, or us too scared to use them. (for those who don’t know there is plenty of such testimony out there from sergeants up to base commanders. I am still trying to work out possible propaganda reasons why they might come out with that).
43% probability of global war within the next decade. Our world is stumbling towards it. Sadly. |
Salisbury highlights just how difficult the use of chem weapons is, hence why they are used so rarely...
The world is marching towards conflict, certainly, fuelled by those who haven’t the sense to stop and think...
At least one of those sergeants is listed in the encyclopaedia of American loons... |
Which one?
I will admit I am little stuck in thought over this. Having never been involved with official secrets I am on the outside looking in. But...
1. You would assume, especially when you are talking about people at base commander and deputy base commander levels, that they would keep 🤫. But they don’t. So why? Propaganda? The greater good? Not scared of military prison or losing pensions? I get stuck on this why, from people at such a high level.
2. If it is propaganda, how do you benefit by telling the world that aliens switch off nukes? That’s surely going to weaken your country? Perhaps not against other nuke nations if they experience the same, but certainly amongst non nuke states.
3. If it is true, then why are they not all in US Military prison?
4. It is easy to say that they are loonies, but would the American military have so many loonies in change of its nukes? Unlikely.
5. Yet when you talk to them, and I have talked to some, they seem broadly credible, though I have reservations about some aspects of their stories. But hey they are selling books so I can understand embellishment for sales.
Sadly this is above my experience base so I struggle to think it through as fully as I would like. All I know is that a lot of retired US service personnel up to base commander level have publicly made those claims.
Would be cool if true however, no nuclear war by order of the Gods.
I suppose that the question is what do base commanders down have to gain, or America for that matter, from telling the world that aliens have visited their base, interacted, and switched off or otherwise fiddled with (nearly launching in one incident) nukes?
As Ejc may say it makes them look like loons. So what am I missing here?
The simplest answer is that they are simply telling the truth and America doesn’t want to give it credibility by forcing legal action etc, knowing that people like Ejc will classify them as loons. Which some may be, but all of them?
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Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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| SloggingScotsman wrote: |
politics becoming disfunctional in places (eg here in the U.K. I mean when you have a Tory MP calling our government a S£&*show and saying he wouldn’t vote for the party he represents, that speaks volumes), and so on. |
His comment was both taken out of context and misquoted...but, there you go...
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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| explorerJC wrote: | | SloggingScotsman wrote: |
politics becoming disfunctional in places (eg here in the U.K. I mean when you have a Tory MP calling our government a S£&*show and saying he wouldn’t vote for the party he represents, that speaks volumes), and so on. |
His comment was both taken out of context and misquoted...but, there you go... |
so what was the proper context and quote?
Newspapers misrepresenting politicians never been known.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:53 pm Post subject: |
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| SloggingScotsman wrote: | | explorerJC wrote: | | SloggingScotsman wrote: |
politics becoming disfunctional in places (eg here in the U.K. I mean when you have a Tory MP calling our government a S£&*show and saying he wouldn’t vote for the party he represents, that speaks volumes), and so on. |
His comment was both taken out of context and misquoted...but, there you go... |
so what was the proper context and quote?
Newspapers misrepresenting politicians never been known. |
read the sunday times...last sunday...
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:13 pm Post subject: |
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| explorerJC wrote: | | SloggingScotsman wrote: | | explorerJC wrote: | | SloggingScotsman wrote: |
politics becoming disfunctional in places (eg here in the U.K. I mean when you have a Tory MP calling our government a S£&*show and saying he wouldn’t vote for the party he represents, that speaks volumes), and so on. |
His comment was both taken out of context and misquoted...but, there you go... |
so what was the proper context and quote?
Newspapers misrepresenting politicians never been known. |
read the sunday times...last sunday... |
per the Guardian
“A leading Conservative backbencher has laid bare the extent of Tory frustrations with Theresa May by openly admitting he would not vote for the party if he wasn’t an MP, and had no interest in becoming a minister in a government he called “a #@?#”.”
Echoed in the Financial Times though I can’t quote from there.
What did the Sunday Times say?
Could it be that the Financial Times accurately reported and the MP has been told to “make this problem go away? While being given a lecture on loyalty?
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Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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