Ironman - Market saturation or decline?

Jorgan

Got around to entering my first branded IM in 4 years the other day, and it will only be a periodic thing now, until I get fed-up of tri.

I noticed that of the Full distance races between now and the end of June, only 4 out of 13 are sold-out (Texas, Cork, Frankfurt & Nice). None of those surprise me, but some of the events that are still on Tier 2/3 do (NZ and two in Australia). My gut feeling is that Cork is in a honeymoon period, based on location and the Irish 'image'.

Saturation or decline? I reckon we're comfortably past peak participation as a sport in general. But if it went back to the number of Ironman 140.6 races there were 10 years ago, would they fill-up more readily?
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stenard · Joined: 04 Sep 2013 Posts: 2063

It must have something to do with the amount of races about. 140.6 is not something "normal" people do more that a couple of per year, if that. Therefore, when you add a new race, you have to either attract new people or you spread out the participants more widely.

Personally, I'm not particularly sad that things are diluting a bit. It at least means you don't have to be entering things 12m in advance. And come race day, most races still seem to be pretty much at capacity.
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Jorgan · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:46 pm Post subject:

Yeah, it's the first time I've not entered an Mdot 12 months in advance! Tbh, I don't mind a bit of natural decline anyway, as the sport has become practically 'mainstream' since I started out in '92.

Whereas the 113 is selling-out quicker than ever Wink

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GrahamO · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:51 pm Post subject:

Here's a controversial view - its reducing because less and less younger people who might be in prime condition and thereby capable of doing triathlons are reducing in number because they are all gym obsessed bunnies with no ability to stick with something, make a commitment and do something without their mum ploughing the way ahead for them Very Happy

Millennials are now aged 22 to 38 years old so you can expect mass participation sports to reduce in popularity as those are pretty much the years when people are at their peak for endurance sports.

It'll be a few years until cycling is impacted much more as MAMILS tend to take cycling up much later in life ......

Happy New Year Rolling Eyes

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stenard · Joined: 04 Sep 2013 Posts: 2063

Personally, I disagree. The higher rate of "one and done" appears to be in the 30-45 bracket from what I have seen. Although I guess your stated age range does capture quite a large portion of that. It's strange, I don't consider myself in the millennial bracket, despite being 3 years inside the "window".

Outside of people who are drawn to triathlon early in their lives and then tend to follow some kind of performance pathway, there's very few "young" people who gravitate to it early in their lives in my opinion. There's too many other mainstream sports that are a bigger attraction. Some of them like swimming are clearly of benefit, but very few people are "doing triathlon" as their sole focus when young, at least relatively.

As a case study of my club in London, with >1000 members, the under 25 population is really really small, and the 25-30 population isn't huge either. It ramps up at 30+.

I'm a case in point with that, joining them in my early 30's, after playing team sports all the way up until my late 20's, and then changing focus after a spate of contact sport injuries.
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Jorgan · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:00 pm Post subject:

Another year of Graham banging the Millennial-Snowflake-Remain-Voter drum Wink

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jibberjim · Joined: 15 Aug 2008 Posts: 8392 Location: Kingston

Jorgan · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:11 pm Post subject:

explorerJC · Joined: 20 Oct 2005 Posts: 16060 Location: Farthingstone

explorerJC · Joined: 20 Oct 2005 Posts: 16060 Location: Farthingstone

probably a multitude of contributory factors...but with tightening belts (cost and calories), i'd guess less people are in a position to do them and those who still like a 'challenge' have moved on to other tattoo opportunities...
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GrahamO · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:50 pm Post subject:

Bluepoolshark · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:51 pm Post subject:

It has to be a cost thing, Lanzarote is currently €646 to enter, that is an utterly obscene amount of money for one race Shocked

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GrahamO · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:56 pm Post subject:

GrahamO · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:58 pm Post subject:

stenard · Joined: 04 Sep 2013 Posts: 2063