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mattsurf
Joined: 28 Sep 2016
Posts: 852
Location: Zug, Switzerland
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 Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:01 pm Post subject: |
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The length of time that a nation remains a superpower seems to be shortening dramatically
Rome was a super power for around 700 years
Britain was a Superpower from early 1700's to 1956 (just short of 250 years)
The USA became a superpower at the turn of the last century, and will probably cease to be a superpower by 2050 so less than 150 years
However, there are still plenty of people in the UK who feel that we are still a superpower, and it will take Americans many years to accept that it is no longer the most powerful nation on earth
Will be interesting to see how long China will dominate the world
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:17 pm Post subject: |
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| explorerJC wrote: | | , the US both rules the skies |
According to that Economist article only for 2 days in the Pacific in the event of war.
| Quote: | | *Oh the irony....the last redoubt of communism finally gives way only to be replaced by the moronic kids of the US and Canada 9and fast on their heels, the UK)... |
Thats what happens when you become complacent, think you know it all, and live in echo chambers. I certainly have tried to prevent current turmoil over the past 2 decades. Look how far that got me.
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Last edited by SloggingScotsman on Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:20 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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| mattsurf wrote: | The length of time that a nation remains a superpower seems to be shortening dramatically
Rome was a super power for around 700 years
Britain was a Superpower from early 1700's to 1956 (just short of 250 years)
The USA became a superpower at the turn of the last century, and will probably cease to be a superpower by 2050 so less than 150 years
However, there are still plenty of people in the UK who feel that we are still a superpower, and it will take Americans many years to accept that it is no longer the most powerful nation on earth
Will be interesting to see how long China will dominate the world |
Good post. The obvious (to me) answer is about 30-50 years from now, but honestly I don’t know.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:29 pm Post subject: |
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| SloggingScotsman wrote: | | explorerJC wrote: | | , the US both rules the skies |
According to that Economist article only for 2 days in the Pacific in the event of war.
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Based on what evidence? The Economist didn't call the economy right, I am even less likely to believe them on military strategy...
| SloggingScotsman wrote: | | explorerJC wrote: | | ,*Oh the irony....the last redoubt of communism finally gives way only to be replaced by the moronic kids of the US and Canada 9and fast on their heels, the UK)... |
Thats what happens when you become complacent, think you know it all, and live in echo chambers. . |
No, it's what happens when the universities lean way too far to the left, the governments of the day flood them with poorly educated students, and history is written without recording a very necessary critique of the left. Thus, echo chambers are made.
| SloggingScotsman wrote: | | Look how far that got me. |
Perhaps reconsider both the methodology of your message and the content?
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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Ejc
Methodology, you have a fair point, but given that my whole life (except for a few short years) I have lived with people with mental illness, with the various implications of that, I have done the best I can with what I have.
Content, to change the content would be to change the message, which would help no one. That’s just one short step away from becoming a yes man and being part of the problem and not part of the solution. The content may be hard to hear I give you, but better that than blindness.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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| SloggingScotsman wrote: | Ejc
Methodology, you have a fair point, but given that my whole life (except for a few short years) I have lived with people with mental illness, with the various implications of that, I have done the best I can with what I have.
Content, to change the content would be to change the message, which would help no one. That’s just one short step away from becoming a yes man and being part of the problem and not part of the solution. The content may be hard to hear I give you, but better that than blindness. |
Take the above - you have posted that the US air power dominance would last only two days...
Think how much stronger that message would be if you were to justify that statement...
Time to scratch that bias...
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:47 pm Post subject: |
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| explorerJC wrote: | | SloggingScotsman wrote: | Ejc
Methodology, you have a fair point, but given that my whole life (except for a few short years) I have lived with people with mental illness, with the various implications of that, I have done the best I can with what I have.
Content, to change the content would be to change the message, which would help no one. That’s just one short step away from becoming a yes man and being part of the problem and not part of the solution. The content may be hard to hear I give you, but better that than blindness. |
Take the above - you have posted that the US air power dominance would last only two days...
Think how much stronger that message would be if you were to justify that statement...
Time to scratch that bias... |
I did, the Economist article I referenced.
I don’t want to agrivate the Economist by quoting too much for fair use...
“In any air war we do great in the first couple of days,” says Christopher Johnson, formerly the cia’s senior China analyst. “Then we have to move everything back to Japan, and we can’t generate sufficient sorties from that point for deep strike on the mainland.”
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:00 pm Post subject: |
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| SloggingScotsman wrote: | | explorerJC wrote: | | SloggingScotsman wrote: | Ejc
Methodology, you have a fair point, but given that my whole life (except for a few short years) I have lived with people with mental illness, with the various implications of that, I have done the best I can with what I have.
Content, to change the content would be to change the message, which would help no one. That’s just one short step away from becoming a yes man and being part of the problem and not part of the solution. The content may be hard to hear I give you, but better that than blindness. |
Take the above - you have posted that the US air power dominance would last only two days...
Think how much stronger that message would be if you were to justify that statement...
Time to scratch that bias... |
I did, the Economist article I referenced.
I don’t want to agrivate the Economist by quoting too much for fair use...
“In any air war we do great in the first couple of days,” says Christopher Johnson, formerly the cia’s senior China analyst. “Then we have to move everything back to Japan, and we can’t generate sufficient sorties from that point for deep strike on the mainland.” |
i actually meant try to scratch a little deeper than the face value of a magazine piece...
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:18 pm Post subject: |
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Ejc
I feel we may be about to go round the houses again, so I will leave it at this.
You brought up the question of US air power which I responded to. I gave evidence as to why you were wrong in your belief, from a senior CIA official through the Economist.
Now, we get onto the issues of (1) publication bias, which obviously all publications have, which is why I read daily so many news sources on issues of the moment, and (2) especially when you come to the likes of the CIA, propaganda. While I am inexperienced in that area, I know governments employ it for strategic advantage.
But if you honestly don’t think that I think hard and reflect extensively about what I write about, you seriously misjudge me.
Now I will leave you to have your routine traditional comeback.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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| SloggingScotsman wrote: | Ejc
I feel we may be about to go round the houses again, so I will leave it at this.
You brought up the question of US air power which I responded to. I gave evidence as to why you were wrong in your belief, from a senior CIA official through the Economist.
Now, we get onto the issues of (1) publication bias, which obviously all publications have, which is why I read daily so many news sources on issues of the moment, and (2) especially when you come to the likes of the CIA, propaganda. While I am inexperienced in that area, I know governments employ it for strategic advantage.
But if you honestly don’t think that I think hard and reflect extensively about what I write about, you seriously misjudge me.
Now I will leave you to have your routine traditional comeback. |
As opposed to leaving it at your traditional point of skulking away when your views have meant an alternative opinion?
No one asked you to think or reflect more...the objection was that perhaps this aspect of what you posted probably warranted additional research to overcome the very bias you have just highlighted!
the irony on echo chambers is simply impressive 
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SGreg
Joined: 30 Jun 2010
Posts: 1112
Location: High Peak
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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Of course, China has better anti-ship Missiles, It needs them, the USA Has far far far better ships.
The US Military could deal with China's navy very quickly should it need to.
The China Anti Ship Missiles have some pretty bad flaws*, and is not a complete system and cannot overcome the USA's countermeasures to these weapons.
It's very difficult to predict what you are suggesting would happen in a WAR? as what that means is very complex? Who is attacking who? Why? on what continent? is it TOTAL war?
Remember in our last Total World War No one even laid a boot on USA home soil (or the UK For that matter)and the mainland was completely untouched(even Hawaii was only tickled!) So are you saying the USA can't beat China or that China can defeat the USA? as really they are completely different things?
* an anti-ship missile is only effective if you can find a ship to fire it at!
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:18 pm Post subject: |
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| SGreg wrote: | Of course, China has better anti-ship Missiles, It needs them, the USA Has far far far better ships.
The US Military could deal with China's navy very quickly should it need to.
The China Anti Ship Missiles have some pretty bad flaws*, and is not a complete system and cannot overcome the USA's countermeasures to these weapons.
It's very difficult to predict what you are suggesting would happen in a WAR? as what that means is very complex? Who is attacking who? Why? on what continent? is it TOTAL war?
Remember in our last Total World War No one even laid a boot on USA home soil (or the UK For that matter)and the mainland was completely untouched(even Hawaii was only tickled!) So are you saying the USA can't beat China or that China can defeat the USA? as really they are completely different things?
* an anti-ship missile is only effective if you can find a ship to fire it at! |
The American arms industry in particular (and thus the economy) are very keen to talk up the threat....
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:34 pm Post subject: |
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| mattsurf wrote: | The length of time that a nation remains a superpower seems to be shortening dramatically
Rome was a super power for around 700 years
Britain was a Superpower from early 1700's to 1956 (just short of 250 years)
The USA became a superpower at the turn of the last century, and will probably cease to be a superpower by 2050 so less than 150 years
However, there are still plenty of people in the UK who feel that we are still a superpower, and it will take Americans many years to accept that it is no longer the most powerful nation on earth
Will be interesting to see how long China will dominate the world |
I don't think they will beyond dominating the markets....
But this is probably a great time for a new religion to evolve....
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:36 pm Post subject: |
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| SGreg wrote: | Of course, China has better anti-ship Missiles, It needs them, the USA Has far far far better ships.
The US Military could deal with China's navy very quickly should it need to.
The China Anti Ship Missiles have some pretty bad flaws*, and is not a complete system and cannot overcome the USA's countermeasures to these weapons.
It's very difficult to predict what you are suggesting would happen in a WAR? as what that means is very complex? Who is attacking who? Why? on what continent? is it TOTAL war?
Remember in our last Total World War No one even laid a boot on USA home soil (or the UK For that matter)and the mainland was completely untouched(even Hawaii was only tickled!) So are you saying the USA can't beat China or that China can defeat the USA? as really they are completely different things?
* an anti-ship missile is only effective if you can find a ship to fire it at! |
what do you think the China Sea disputes are about? Radar etc location stations possibly? Satellites can presumably track ships. As presumably could drones. I really can’t imagine that it is all that difficult to track a ship nowadays. If nothing else attach a sea borne drone to follow it when you stumble across it, and just watch it for years. Then you always have its location.
Re global war. I am currently at a 43% probability (which obviously means I think that it will be avoided). Where or between whom I don’t know. Yet. The obvious guess would be China v America, but that is way too simplistic. I am sort of with Angela Merkel on this one, it could be a rerun of the multitude of small issues that enabled and created the conditions for WW1 to start, in a bumbling and stumbling sort of fashion. Why? The world is becoming more extreme politically, institutions are loosing their power in different ways, the growing influence in China in several different ways, the rise of nationalism in various countries, politics becoming disfunctional in places (eg here in the U.K. I mean when you have a Tory MP calling our government a S£&*show and saying he wouldn’t vote for the party he represents, that speaks volumes), and so on. China and America would I think almost inevitably be involved but that is not to say that it would start between them. Though the money has to be on the Thucydides Trap playing a role.
Now that China has a naval base in Djibouti that opens up a new naval sphere for it. And oh so close to American fleets and narrow waterways.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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explorerJC
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 16060
Location: Farthingstone
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| Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:12 pm Post subject: |
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| SloggingScotsman wrote: | | SGreg wrote: | Of course, China has better anti-ship Missiles, It needs them, the USA Has far far far better ships.
The US Military could deal with China's navy very quickly should it need to.
The China Anti Ship Missiles have some pretty bad flaws*, and is not a complete system and cannot overcome the USA's countermeasures to these weapons.
It's very difficult to predict what you are suggesting would happen in a WAR? as what that means is very complex? Who is attacking who? Why? on what continent? is it TOTAL war?
Remember in our last Total World War No one even laid a boot on USA home soil (or the UK For that matter)and the mainland was completely untouched(even Hawaii was only tickled!) So are you saying the USA can't beat China or that China can defeat the USA? as really they are completely different things?
* an anti-ship missile is only effective if you can find a ship to fire it at! |
what do you think the China Sea disputes are about? Radar etc location stations possibly? Satellites can presumably track ships. As presumably could drones. I really can’t imagine that it is all that difficult to track a ship nowadays. If nothing else attach a sea borne drone to follow it when you stumble across it, and just watch it for years. Then you always have its location.
Re global war. I am currently at a 43% probability (which obviously means I think that it will be avoided). Where or between whom I don’t know. Yet. The obvious guess would be China v America, but that is way too simplistic. I am sort of with Angela Merkel on this one, it could be a rerun of the multitude of small issues that enabled and created the conditions for WW1 to start, in a bumbling and stumbling sort of fashion. Why? The world is becoming more extreme politically, institutions are loosing their power in different ways, the growing influence in China in several different ways, the rise of nationalism in various countries, politics becoming disfunctional in places (eg here in the U.K. I mean when you have a Tory MP calling our government a S£&*show and saying he wouldn’t vote for the party he represents, that speaks volumes), and so on. China and America would I think almost inevitably be involved but that is not to say that it would start between them. Though the money has to be on the Thucydides Trap playing a role.
Now that China has a naval base in Djibouti that opens up a new naval sphere for it. And oh so close to American fleets and narrow waterways. |
in what way is the world more extreme politically?
Johnny Mercer is hardly a traditional tory, although i am happy to be corrected on that...
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