Trump - the beginning of the end?

2 scheds · Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am Post subject:

A thread about Trump hijacked by Russia!

You couldn't make it up. Laughing

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Jorgan · Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:30 am Post subject:

SloggingScotsman · Joined: 18 Jul 2006 Posts: 2967

With Russia you have to look at the subtleties.

1. They do appear to be very good at getting their hooks into people of influence. Always have been. If all your MPs or MEPs etc shout « how high » when reminded of the dirt on them, then it is not that difficult to influence another nation.

2. Russian ravens may be just as active as swallows. Can only wonder how many prominent folk they get to through their daughters and sons.

3. If I can spot that Russia has a very real opportunity to grasp international prestige and influence due to the failings of the EU, in this time of rapidly shifting power balance between the US and China, then it is you know possible that Russia have also noted the opportunity. I mean even Macron is now talking about working with Russia.

And let’s face it you can’t blame Russia for wanting to regain some of what it has lost.

I just wish that Britain was less wonky, and that the EU were in a better position to inspire. Why? When America wakes up and realises that it is the has-been the Thucydides trap is likely to hit hard, and that could be quite unstabling globally as China calmly continues to gain influence in all spheres.

I have said it before we need an effective third balance to help global security. Ideally it would be the EU. If not Russia needs to grasp the role. So my, and now Macrons, view of an informal working arrangement between the EU and Russia, may be the most stabilising, in this uncharted time. Fraught with problems obviously.

But unless the EU learns how to inspire hearts fast, globally, then what other option is there? Let Russia act as stabiliser? It’s just a pity that Britain is rapidly becoming irrelevant in such global matters (City of London aside obviously). I mean we are happy to inject fear into our own citizens, so what hope do we have of inspiring globally? Not much.

At least Macron seems to recognise the problem and seems to be trying to do something about it.
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SGreg · Joined: 30 Jun 2010 Posts: 1112 Location: High Peak

Whisk · Joined: 09 Jun 2005 Posts: 8739 Location: London

I don't think that Trump's impetuosity and lack of diplomacy is helping matters. He's upset a lot of his traditional allies like Canada and France and his current stance towards Turkey runs the risk of pushing them out of NATO and towards Russia.

There was a question earlier in the thread about whether America would still be the "leader of the free world". I think they'll have the biggest economy and the strongest military for some time to come, but the "America First" doctrine weakens any claim to be doing things for the greater good. Just look at climate change, where coal miners in the US are prioritised over people elsewhere in the world where rising sea levels and extreme weather conditions are impacting them.
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SGreg · Joined: 30 Jun 2010 Posts: 1112 Location: High Peak

SloggingScotsman · Joined: 18 Jul 2006 Posts: 2967

SGreg · Joined: 30 Jun 2010 Posts: 1112 Location: High Peak

Remember your post I referenced basically said it had already happened, and clearly, it hasn't as your second post has clarified.

As for timescales we are both guessing, I said Decades but that could be as little as 20years, Which I think given the vast lead and Americas unwillingness to go quietly is probably about correct as a minimum.

But of course, sudden and unforeseen events could accelerate or slow these guesses. And remember Japan was once seen as a threat to overthrow the US as a superpower. Just because China is on the rise doesn't mean it could not stall and wain yet! There are a lot of empty Cities and disused airports and shopping centers in China that have been built to boost GDP that have become nothing but white elephants.

Then there is the issue of workers rights and health and safety which are all pretty much ignored in China ATM but as the Economy grows and the "man" becomes more relevant and empowered, this could have a huge throttling effect on the economy. America has most of that well sorted! Again China has little to no green policies and is burning coal and natural resources with abandon, how will it cope when this becomes unsustainable?

What I am saying is there is a lot more too it than China are growing faster than the US so they WILL catch them. It might well happen but it might well not too. and as I said is at least decades away (yes maybe as few as 2)

Secondly, even when it does, it's not such a dead cert that America will insist on going down in a scorched earth policy! Maybe they will be happy in their new role, maybe the California Model will have won over and the US will be more a Tech and Green power, happy to invent, explore, inspire and protect the earth while China takes up the role as Workhouse and industrial Giant or the world? Again that is all pie in the sky claptrap, but an example of how the world stage could play out differently to how history predicts!

I am still on the side of doubt about the future Global conflict in the near future. I just think the hunger for it is too low. Who would really prosper from an all-out china/Russia v Nato style conflict?

The Military Gulf is still too vast, I concede all your points on Cyber countermeasures, but really? as you say it's not difficult, so one would assume that the largest most advanced military fighting force in the world may have considered this too? And come up with a solution or two?

Jorgan · Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:25 pm Post subject:

2 scheds · Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:35 pm Post subject:

SloggingScotsman · Joined: 18 Jul 2006 Posts: 2967

SloggingScotsman · Joined: 18 Jul 2006 Posts: 2967

Jorgan · Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 1:51 pm Post subject:

SGreg · Joined: 30 Jun 2010 Posts: 1112 Location: High Peak

I will try and keep this brief as it could easily escalate into a cacophony of rambling on both parts Laughing

But I think you are wrong about America and the current trend is indeed upwards if it's peaked it is AT its peak now, it is NOT on its way down, it could start tomorrow but it's not started already, the numbers show that conclusively.

I still think it has a way long way to grow especially as the growth industries in the US are Tech and changing the way the world operates, they could easily be ion the cusp of a new golden age of growth, we need genuine innovation as the technologies of old become obsolete by necessity (Climate Change!) the US should easily lead the way here!

On China, Like you, I am not overly worried by the concept of a China as the dominant power, but fear the transition for the reasons you have stated.

And yes, of course, there is always the possibility of accidental war, I pray (not literally) that we have learned enough from the previous century to avoid this, but many many people said that after 1919 and well...

And still there has to be public desire, any severe warmongery could be put down by western democracy. WW2 very nearly didn't happen, from a British and US point of view, I think in modern times we would avoid conflict at all cost, if we can.