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TRO Saracen
Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 1275
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 Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:36 am Post subject: |
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Even in M50-54 that bike looks short of what is required.
My form (3 narrow misses) would be on that scale:
Swim: 6:45 for 400m swim (around 1:05 ish IM swim)
Bike: around 4:00 for 100 (fast course), around 4:10 for lumpy 100. 25 would be 53 mins (fast course, 56 mins slower course)
Run: 1:30 HIM/3:10 mara
I've missed by 3/6 and 11 minutes.
TTowels standards for swim and run would have got me home and hosed I think, but I would need all of the bike speed above as well.
As a guide I'm pretty aero and I think IM at around 2.8-3.0w/kg does the job if I can uplift the swim and run a bit.
And remember, that is M50-54 not the real gun AG's.....
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2019. IM Wales no 5.
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mattsurf
Joined: 28 Sep 2016
Posts: 852
Location: Zug, Switzerland
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| Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:37 am Post subject: |
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| Mr ME wrote: | | mattsurf wrote: |
Great write up from Bolton by Mr Me, how much did you weigh at the time? |
Hmmm... don’t like to get too obsessed with weight so I don’t keep accurate records but it would have been somewhere around the 74kg mark. I’m 180cm tall.
Also Stenard I’ve been thinking this for a while but I think you may be the only person on this forum who doesn’t think you’ve got a very good shot at qualifying given the right course and the right day. Do it!! |
Mr Me, thanks. My thoughts on weight were looking at your NP, mine is very similar, I am comfortable with an NP of 240-250w for a HIM, probably 230-240w for an IM, I am around 72kg. This sort of confirms I am in the right ball park for the bike. My swim is weak, but with recent improvements I would hope to do 1h5m - 1h10m. My run is way off your pace, this is where my main focus has been this year.
I am hoping that you are right about location, looking at different events, it seems to be that on most events there the fastest bunch of athletes are all pretty similarly in with a shout of qualifying, what differs is the size of the bunch.... I am doing 70.3 in Austria, which by reputation is one of the most competitive, still hoping to get a top 5 finish
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YKK
Joined: 23 Oct 2011
Posts: 317
Location: North&West london
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| Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:23 pm Post subject: |
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I had some thoughts last year of getting back to giving it a go this year, especially as I aged up. But alas this year has slipped by.
To me the aim would be to get as close as possible to
1 hour swim
5 hour bike
3 hour run.
Even if you miss all those targets, if you get close to them, you are going to be in with a shout. Then has others have said, it is then down to who else turns up and how well they turn up...
One thing that has not been mentioned yet is knowing the course.
When I qualified for the 70.3 worlds, I had decided my best chance was at Exmoor (RIP). I had done it 2 or 3 times before I qualified, knowing what was coming both on the bike and then off the bike I found a great help in subsequent years.
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funkster
Joined: 29 Jun 2006
Posts: 2124
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:02 am Post subject: |
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| ttowel wrote: | Process:
get your 400m swim under 6, and a sub hour IM
Ride lots of 100s, do a sub 4.30 100 mile TT, a sub hour 25
Run a 1.25 half marathon, try to get under a 3 hour marathon in an off season from triathlon.
Be in that shape and you have a fighting chance. |
This I can do.
It's the putting them together that's the issue
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ttowel
Joined: 30 Sep 2008
Posts: 4127
Location: Swim School
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:13 am Post subject: |
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| YKK wrote: | I had some thoughts last year of getting back to giving it a go this year, especially as I aged up. But alas this year has slipped by.
To me the aim would be to get as close as possible to
1 hour swim
5 hour bike
3 hour run.
Even if you miss all those targets, if you get close to them, you are going to be in with a shout. Then has others have said, it is then down to who else turns up and how well they turn up...
One thing that has not been mentioned yet is knowing the course.
When I qualified for the 70.3 worlds, I had decided my best chance was at Exmoor (RIP). I had done it 2 or 3 times before I qualified, knowing what was coming both on the bike and then off the bike I found a great help in subsequent years. |
Never done all 3 in the same race but never finished off the AG podium in Ironman. Do all those and normally win the AG over 40s
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stenard
Joined: 04 Sep 2013
Posts: 2063
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:14 am Post subject: |
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| YKK wrote: |
To me the aim would be to get as close as possible to
1 hour swim
5 hour bike
3 hour run.
Even if you miss all those targets, if you get close to them, you are going to be in with a shout. Then has others have said, it is then down to who else turns up and how well they turn up... |
This is more where I see it. And as I said earlier, the above is 9hrs and that wouldnt have been enough for me (at a race in mid Aug, only two months before Kona - would have been a logistical headache for all those accepting I would imagine).
| YKK wrote: | One thing that has not been mentioned yet is knowing the course.
When I qualified for the 70.3 worlds, I had decided my best chance was at Exmoor (RIP). I had done it 2 or 3 times before I qualified, knowing what was coming both on the bike and then off the bike I found a great help in subsequent years. |
I think that's maybe correct, but probably for tougher courses. I'd say it's also a case of picking a course that suits you. I am not a climber for example, or a confident descender, so I definitely haemorrhage time on hilly courses. I lost loads in the first 45k of Mallorca 70.3, then made a lot of that back up again in the flat second half.
On the flip side, whilst I'm not powerful enough (at the moment) to be a great TTer, I can hold aero pretty well for long periods, and being relatively small, can hold my own a bit better on the flat, keeping me in the mix for the run. That was one of the main reasons I picked Bahrain, and it worked.
Just a shame the course at Nice will not suit me in the slightest, but getting there was the big challenge! I've signed up for the Etape to try and work on some of that climbing weakness, whilst also doing a bit of a bucket list event.
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Buzz_
Joined: 19 May 2007
Posts: 453
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:17 am Post subject: |
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Some interesting observations. It seems:
- this is a multi-year plan
- you need a course that plays to your strengths
- you need to be lucky with who else turns up
- course familiarisation is useful
So maybe pick an event and return year after year. Maybe Bolton is a good shout as it doesn't have the glamour of an EU event and is not going to be populated by PB hunters. Also being quite close to Kona, more chance a a roll down than Wales? Worse case you get a legacy spot after years of trying.
But overall, you have to be motivated by the process more than the outcome, or disillusionment awaits.
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Buzz_
Joined: 19 May 2007
Posts: 453
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:19 am Post subject: |
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| Mr ME wrote: | | Also Stenard I’ve been thinking this for a while but I think you may be the only person on this forum who doesn’t think you’ve got a very good shot at qualifying given the right course and the right day. Do it!! |
Trouble is he's too young. Just needs to hold that speed for the next 20 years and he's sorted.
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chickenboy
Joined: 06 Jul 2005
Posts: 1657
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:47 am Post subject: |
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[/quote]But as I said before, those times just don't seem to translate to the level I'm seeing that's necessary. All the people from my club who've gone are comfortably better bikers and runners than me. At that 100 for example one of our guys who was off to Kona did 4:09. That's a different ball game, and he runs Sub3 for fun. One of the others is a sub2:40 marathoner, etc. And it's not like they're dominating their AG...they tend to be squeaking in![/quote]
Joe Spraggins?
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chickenboy
Joined: 06 Jul 2005
Posts: 1657
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:50 am Post subject: |
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| ttowel wrote: | Process:
get your 400m swim under 6, and a sub hour IM
Ride lots of 100s, do a sub 4.30 100 mile TT, a sub hour 25
Run a 1.25 half marathon, try to get under a 3 hour marathon in an off season from triathlon.
Be in that shape and you have a fighting chance. |
this is encouraging, can hit all the splits, but need to stop getting run injured: i'm the 'young' gun in 50-54 this year, need a 9:40 ish at Copenhagen. fingers crossed
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stenard
Joined: 04 Sep 2013
Posts: 2063
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:17 am Post subject: |
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| chickenboy wrote: | | Quote: | | But as I said before, those times just don't seem to translate to the level I'm seeing that's necessary. All the people from my club who've gone are comfortably better bikers and runners than me. At that 100 for example one of our guys who was off to Kona did 4:09. That's a different ball game, and he runs Sub3 for fun. One of the others is a sub2:40 marathoner, etc. And it's not like they're dominating their AG...they tend to be squeaking in! |
Joe Spraggins? |
Yep, he was the sub2:40 guy I was thinking of. His bike has exploded over the last couple of years too. The numbers I see him putting up I could only dream of. I'd argue now that he's in M30, he'd struggle to get back without further improvement (he snuck in with 3rd in AG at Bolton last year*, whilst his time in M30 would have only been good enough for 9th). And I'm nowhere near his level. Better swimmer though!
*ignoring the minor fact he got hit by a car during the race, and struggled to run! I was just demonstrating a relative jump in competitiveness moving up to M30
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chickenboy
Joined: 06 Jul 2005
Posts: 1657
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, I know Joe well. That bike crash!!!! He’s looking good for london this year too with a 1:15 half at weekend. I predict a 2:36. But agreed, his bike has got better and better. Not sure about his swim, I’ve seen him in the pool, and his technique doesn’t look crap, so I’m puzzled as to why his swim times don’t improve
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stenard
Joined: 04 Sep 2013
Posts: 2063
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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| chickenboy wrote: | | Yeah, I know Joe well. That bike crash!!!! He’s looking good for london this year too with a 1:15 half at weekend. I predict a 2:36. But agreed, his bike has got better and better. Not sure about his swim, I’ve seen him in the pool, and his technique doesn’t look crap, so I’m puzzled as to why his swim times don’t improve |
I wouldnt be surprised. He's doing some insane mileage. Plus he has also just acquired some vaporfly's which, based on the other thread, I believe will make a big difference to someone like him. He's just gone and pb'd in them too after all at HM distance.
I agree on swim. I've said this to him directly, so I don't mind saying it publicly (as he has posted on here in the past) ... I don't think he swims enough with groups. He seems to spend so much time working on technique with the drills Ray gives him, that as you say, the few times I have seen him swim, he seems decent technique wise. Yet a large chunk of my improvement came from swimming every week with the best in our club at our Wed am session, and just learning to hang on. It opened my eyes as to what was possible. From what I see, he seems to swim solo pretty much all of the time.
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tuckandgo
Joined: 03 Sep 2012
Posts: 461
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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| stenard wrote: | | chickenboy wrote: | | Yeah, I know Joe well. That bike crash!!!! He’s looking good for london this year too with a 1:15 half at weekend. I predict a 2:36. But agreed, his bike has got better and better. Not sure about his swim, I’ve seen him in the pool, and his technique doesn’t look crap, so I’m puzzled as to why his swim times don’t improve |
I wouldnt be surprised. He's doing some insane mileage. Plus he has also just acquired some vaporfly's which, based on the other thread, I believe will make a big difference to someone like him. He's just gone and pb'd in them too after all at HM distance.
I agree on swim. I've said this to him directly, so I don't mind saying it publicly (as he has posted on here in the past) ... I don't think he swims enough with groups. He seems to spend so much time working on technique with the drills Ray gives him, that as you say, the few times I have seen him swim, he seems decent technique wise. Yet a large chunk of my improvement came from swimming every week with the best in our club at our Wed am session, and just learning to hang on. It opened my eyes as to what was possible. From what I see, he seems to swim solo pretty much all of the time. |
Sounds like he needs to charge up and down the pool with some paddles & PB
I'm a crap AOS and I went from 1.08 (ish) to sub 60mins for my last 3 IM's by doing that.
(full disclosure - wetsuit swims!! I am not that fast in the pool with paddles and a PB)
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Tri'ing Swimmer
Joined: 15 Nov 2016
Posts: 219
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| Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Steward what did you need at Bahrain to qualify for Nice? Assume you’re 25-29? Likely to do 70.3s next year so maybe worth a thought before I age up to 30, but assume I’m too far off on the bike to make realistic.
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