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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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 Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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| SGreg wrote: | I will try and keep this brief as it could easily escalate into a cacophony of rambling on both parts 
But I think you are wrong about America and the current trend is indeed upwards if it's peaked it is AT its peak now, it is NOT on its way down, it could start tomorrow but it's not started already, the numbers show that conclusively.
I still think it has a way long way to grow especially as the growth industries in the US are Tech and changing the way the world operates, they could easily be ion the cusp of a new golden age of growth, we need genuine innovation as the technologies of old become obsolete by necessity (Climate Change!) the US should easily lead the way here!
On China, Like you, I am not overly worried by the concept of a China as the dominant power, but fear the transition for the reasons you have stated.
And yes, of course, there is always the possibility of accidental war, I pray (not literally) that we have learned enough from the previous century to avoid this, but many many people said that after 1919 and well...
And still there has to be public desire, any severe warmongery could be put down by western democracy. WW2 very nearly didn't happen, from a British and US point of view, I think in modern times we would avoid conflict at all cost, if we can. |
and that is why having different minds, with different sets of life experiences, and different viewpoints, are necessary. All any of us can do is form our best assessment at a point in time, in a fluid world.
So the main bit we disagree on is whether America has peaked. It would be good for America if it hasn’t. Part of me hopes that I am wrong as that would then shift the « global balancing problem » onto someone else, ie not me, as Father Time would be along for me before the issues materialise. (That’s tongue in cheek in case it isn’t obvious  ) I do worry about our world though.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Jorgan wrote: | | SloggingScotsman wrote: | | Jorgan wrote: | | SloggingScotsman wrote: |
Some of it is in Americas control, some isn’t as it in China’s (and Russia, India etc etc) control, and some of it is simply natural country/empire rise and now Decline. |
Russia is nothing like China or India, it is not an ascending economic or manufacturing powerhouse. Happy to be educated, but aside from oil/gas, what does Russia export in vast quantities; what it's growth sector? |
meddling with elections? Getting politicians globally under it’s thumb? (See my recent post on this). Syria, showing that it can be more influential than America. Etc
If you have dirt on sufficient numbers of MPs, MEPs etc getting them to reply « how high » isn’t that diffciult.
« The KGBs poison factory » by Boris Volodarsky is a fascinating read. If true. |
I was going to suggest subterfuge with some sarcasm; but how will they fund this when we all drive Teslas? It's why many Gulf states are fervently trying to diversify & invest internationally. |
tesla is old school, hydrogen is where it is at. Mind you i’d drive a Tesla.
So how could Russia fund this.....
1. It could simply print the money, use that, and when hyperinflation hits and the economy tanks, blame western imperialists. Use sleeper assets abroad, your hackers, that internet bureau that allegedly does all the fake news on the cheap, lean on every politician and civil servant abroad you have dirt on, etc.
2. Develop its robotics etc in Siberia that seems to be doing well. That’s what happens when you teach 5 years old how to use obsolete computers to build mechanical toys etc.
3. Create proxy wars in resource rich countries and help yourself to the booty.
4. Do a deal with Macron to share Europe and get EU funding.
Of the top of my head.
5. Create good quality fake US dollars and flood the world with them, destroying confidence in the greenback, and using what you could get through the system to fund.
6. Ask China for a loan.
7. Cut the Arctic off from everyone else and mine it’s resources like crazy.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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sGreg
You talk about numbers proving it. Not disagreeing with you in principle. I am a believer in following the data.
However I take a wider viewpoint. I try to feel the « energy Threads. » example here include things like Western reaction to rendition and torture; how even US General Stublebine before he died YouTubed how he came to believe that the White House was responsible for 9-11 (and he was head of US Army Intelligence); the internal gun issues in America fracturing the nation from within; etc.
Last few seconds https://youtu.be/Jc1ql4TfCZw (full disclosure I know of this general from the books by the people he recruited and had trained who now train the public in my hobbies)
The numbers matter. As an accountant I know that. But when you are talking about a nations decline the numbers are just one factor. It’s reputation, it’s trust and respect, it’s internal cohesiveness etc all matter as well. These tend not to show up in numbers.
A bit like how a companies biggest assets may not show on its balance sheet/SFP. Or how, moreso in the past, it’s biggest liabilities may be off balance sheet.
And when you now have a US Army General now questioning if/calling the White House the enemy over 9-11. Beggars belief.
That sort of internal discord between the military and the Government does not bode well. And now you have all of the Trump/FBI/CIA stuff as well.
Now, if you assume that US General, ex head of US Army Intelligence, is correct in his assessment, then consider if anyone in the Bush administration is now in the Trump administration? If so, were they involved? If true, could they do similar again? If so, could America contain it in the way they did with 9-11 given the changed global political realities and personalities?
It’s more than just the numbers.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
Last edited by SloggingScotsman on Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:59 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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For what my analysis is worth, I think that when Michelle Obama takes over the Presidency in 2024 (55-65% probability) America will regain a lot of global goodwill. Which will help America enormously. When/if she becomes President I would love to work for her, but as a Brit that isn’t likely to happen.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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Jorgan
Joined: 12 Nov 2007
Posts: 18226
Location: alles was ich bin, alles was ich war
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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Sloggers, why don't you 'reach out' to her via email.
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27 Years since it all began....
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SloggingScotsman
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 2967
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| Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Jorgan wrote: | | Sloggers, why don't you 'reach out' to her via email. |
Funny Jorgan funny.
I only « reach out » to people when I think that I might make a positive difference by encouraging thought.
It may surprise you but (other than discussing and reading about) I am not going to involve myself with any nations politics other than Britain’s. Sure if she were to offer me a job in 6 years I may take it, but she would have to find me.
Somehow I don’t think that is likely to happen.
Besides in 6 years time, with Labour in government, I may be busy here.
You did make me chuckle Jorgan, thank you.
_________________
Trump elected.
We vote to Brexit..but something happens so it doesn’t.
Trump re-elected in 2020..99%
Something real bad happens to US during Trumps 2nd term..75%
Michelle Obama president in 2024...65%
In the next 10 years ww3 will start..47%.
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2 scheds
Joined: 28 Jun 2006
Posts: 24938
Location: The comeback trail
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| Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:57 am Post subject: |
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Don't worry, there are "adults in the room"
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People in compression socks shouldn't throw stones - Icehockeyhair 22/10/2013
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